Numbers from New Q Poll

APOPKA, FL - NOVEMBER 06: Signs point to a polling station on South Central Avenue on November 6, 2018 in Apopka, Florida. Turnout is expected to be high nationwide as Democrats hope to take back control of at least... APOPKA, FL - NOVEMBER 06: Signs point to a polling station on South Central Avenue on November 6, 2018 in Apopka, Florida. Turnout is expected to be high nationwide as Democrats hope to take back control of at least one chamber of Congress. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images) MORE LESS
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May 21, 2019 2:23 p.m.

Some very interesting numbers in a just released Quinnipiac Poll.

Here are numbers that jump out to me.

President Trump’s numbers are 38% approve, 57% disapprove. On May 2nd those numbers were 41%-55%. 54% of voters say they would “definitely not vote” for President Trump. 31% say they’d “definitely vote” for him.

There’s also this. Joe Biden is the only presidential candidate in either party with a clear net approval.

Pete Buttigieg is the only other candidate with a nominal net approval. Note that last sentence though. For most of these Democrats it’s that most haven’t heard enough to make a judgement either way. So what you’re seeing here is to a significant extent confirmed GOP partisans knowing to hate them just on the basis of their party with others not having a clear opinion.

Finally, here’s the breakdown on whether people are paying attention to the race this early. Fully 74% say they’re paying some or a lot of attention, which is astounding in historical terms but not terribly surprising given what is happening in the country.

I’m of two minds on these numbers. The consequences of President Trump being reelected are so catastrophic that nothing can be taken for granted. We’ve seen his unconventional politics do the unthinkable and impossible before. And his particular coalition has a big, big electoral college advantage. Having said that, these are terrible numbers for a President seeking reelection.

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