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Is Arizona the Real Tipping Point State?

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June 9, 2019 1:08 p.m.

TPM Reader GH makes a pitch for Arizona rather than Wisconsin as the real tipping point state in 2020. For me I’m still inclined to see Wisconsin as the critical state, not because I disagree with any of the particular arguments, simply we’ve seen Dems win it before in recent history. There’s a proof of concept for lack of a better phrase. But these are still very good points worth considering …

I love the work you do. I was so happy to read about your union, and I’m even more supportive of TPM because of it.

On the criticality of Wisconsin, I do agree that it’s looking more like the critical state in comparison to Michigan and Pennsylvania. But Arizona really looks like it’s ready for purple Prime Time. The two states (WI/AZ) are worth nearly the same amount of electoral votes, making them interchangeable for 2020 purposes. And in the 2018 races, the two big headliners in each state wound up as very close Dem victories. Sinema actually beat McSally by more than Evers beat Walker. (2 points in AZ, 1 point in WI)

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